Geosciences
Handling Uncertainty in Risk Assessment
Half of the programme is computer-based practice in which each participant builds their own analysis model: how to represent uncertainty, propagate it, analyse its sensitivity and make decisions in its light.
Overview
About the programme
Half of the programme is computer-based practice in which each participant builds their own analysis model: how to represent uncertainty, propagate it, analyse its sensitivity and make decisions in its light.
Duration
2 days
Training hours
14 hours
Delivery
Training hall · Virtual · At your premises
Language
Arabic or English
Objectives
What trainees will gain
- Understand the fundamentals of uncertainty analysis in risk assessment.
- Learn the tools for handling uncertainty within a probabilistic framework: representation, propagation and sensitivity analysis.
- Learn the new approaches to treating epistemic uncertainty.
- Select the most suitable tools to link to field practice, and interpret analysis results.
- Apply the concepts by building your own analysis model in R, Matlab or Excel.
Content
What the programme covers
Why uncertainty needs to be addressed
- Types of uncertainty: aleatory versus epistemic.
- The treatment framework: representation, propagation, sensitivity analysis and decision-making.
Probability as a tool
- Representation using probability distributions, propagation by the Monte Carlo method, and sensitivity analysis by variance decomposition (Sobol indices), with case studies.
Beyond classical probability
- Representation according to the available information, and combining representation tools for propagation: probabilities, intervals and fuzzy numbers, with case studies.
- Decision-making in the light of uncertainty information.
Who for
Target audience
Engineers and risk managers in national and regional government bodies and consultancies.
Method
How it is delivered
Presentations, with half of the time devoted to computer-based practice.
A programme tailored to your organisation
The duration and topics of the programme are adjusted to the organisation's needs, and it is delivered at its site, in a training hall arranged by the Center, or virtually.